March 19, 2004

Survey: ANC share of vote may top 70%

The African National Congress (ANC) could win the April 14 elections with a landslide victory of between 70,9% and 73,4% depending on the turnout of voters , according to the latest SABC-Markinor survey. The survey was conducted from January 29 to February 20 in all the provinces. Its findings suggested the ANC increased its political domination in the past year and its support was higher than previously indicated by opinion surveys.

It found that a low turnout at the polls would favour the ANC as their supporters were more likely to exercise their right to vote. With a high turnout at the polls, the ANC would win 70,9% of votes; with a moderate turnout, 71,2%; and with a low turnout, 73,4%. Markinor found that overall the ANC enjoyed 68,6% of support from registered voters. The Democratic Alliance (DA) would remain the largest opposition party, the survey showed, with 9,2% of the vote. All other opposition parties got less than 5% of national support. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) received support from 4,5% of respondents and the New National Party (NNP) 3,2%. The survey showed 4% of registered voters nationally were still undecided; another 5,5% would spoil their ballot papers or refused to answer Markinor's queries. In Western Cape, 17,6% of voters polled were undecided.

Respondents were given a ballot paper with an alphabetical list of the names, acronyms and logos of parties. They were also given the opportunity to fill in any other party they would vote for. They sealed their ballot papers, making the survey a secret vote.

The Markinor survey indicated the ANC would win convincingly in seven provinces. But it would require a coalition partnership in Western Cape, where it would secure 32% of votes, followed by the DA at 24,4% and the NNP at 13,3%. In KwaZulu-Natal the ANC's support would grow to 48,7%; followed by the IFP at 24,9% and the DA at 6,3%. In North West 10,2% of voters were still undecided. The ANC would secure its highest percentage of votes in Limpopo, with 87,8%. It would get 78,4% in North West, 75,5% in Free State, 69,6% in Northern Cape, 76,2% in Eastern Cape, 72,7% in Mpumalanga, and 64,6% in Gauteng. (Business Day, Johannesburg)

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